AAP 2026 CONFERENCE

Probabilism is the thesis that the degrees of belief of rational agents behave like mathematical probabilities. There are quite different lines of argument for probabilism in the literature, including dutch book arguments, arguments based on representation theorems (which concern the representation of preference orderings by assignments of numerical utilities and degrees of belief) and epistemic utility (in particular, accuracy) arguments. This paper focusses on the dutch book line of argument. My aim is to develop a better version of the argument that avoids problems faced by previous versions -- and then show that it still fails to establish probabilism. The upshot is that ultimately the dutch book line of argument is not a viable route to probabilism -- but does lead nonetheless to a weaker yet still substantive conclusion.